The MIT researchers warn that by 2015, greenhouse gas emissions from transport in the developing world will exceed those in the industrialized world unless manufacturers and municipalities can improve the fuel economy of cars and trucks, curb traffic growth, reinvent public transport and create mobility options for people and freight.

“Transportation is essential for moving people and goods, but it also has a broader role. It shapes our cities, stimulates economic growth and makes possible societal interactions. Unfortunately, it also has harmful side effects that must be looked at carefully and systematically,” said Daniel Roos, associate dean for engineering systems, director of the Engineering Systems Division and one of three MIT project leaders.

The study, “Mobility 2001,” was conducted by MIT and Charles River Associates and is the first phase of a three year study commissioned by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). The goal of the study is to develop a global vision of sustainable mobility. The report considers all modes of transport (ground, air and ocean); looks at mobility’s impact on economic development, social welfare and environmental quality; and considers developed and developing countries.

The assessment paints a sobering picture of trends in automobile travel, which in the developed world is the main provider of mobility in all urban areas. Urban sprawl is increasing as the affluent move to the suburbs, where low population densities make public transport difficult. In the developing world, rapid population growth, urbanization and the beginning of suburbanization are making conditions worse. Increasing prosperity has led to an increase in the number of private vehicles.

Rapidly growing megacities have little time or money to build public transport systems or to expand roads to handle the new traffic. The result is serious congestion, economic and environmental damage, and major safety problems. Energy use and associated emissions are skyrocketing, in part due to the use of older cars and dirtier fuels.

Building and using roads, bridges, airports and harbors degrades ecosystems, damages natural habitats and kills off species, leading to loss of biodiversity. These impacts may be more damaging in the long term than generally recognized.

The environmental impacts of airplanes in flight are often underestimated, the study said. Air transport is responsible for eight to 12 percent of transportation-related carbon emissions. Because the carbon is emitted at high altitudes, its potential impact on global warming is twice that of carbon emitted at ground level.

In summarizing their findings, the researchers identified the following challenges: 1) Ensure that transport systems serve essential human needs, enhance the quality of life and support economic development; 2) Adapt vehicles to evolving requirements on air pollutant emissions, vehicle load carrying capacity, amount of fuel use and ownership structure; 3) Reinvent public transport to provide mobility to those who don’t have access to cars and a reasonable alternative for those who do; 4) Reinvent the process of planning, developing and managing mobility infrastructure; 5) Reduce carbon dioxide emissions; 6) Resolve the competition for use of infrastructure between personal and freight transportation; 7) Tackle congestion by developing mobility options for people and freight.

The Sustainable Mobility Project team will now move to its next phase: devising strategies aimed at making mobility sustainable over the coming decades.