The Prius Strategy

How to Displace Iraqi Oil with Energy Efficiency

by Roger Lippman

The problem: a war that has cost $250 billion (as of May 2006), with no plausible explanation except to gain control of Iraq’s oil. Another large appropriation has already passed Congress. Our representatives will support this spending until there is a large outcry against continuing to fund this war.

But what if we didn't need the oil?

How many new 45 miles-per-gallon Toyota Priuses would it take to displace the oil we used to get from Iraq? Government policy should encourage people to junk their gas hogs in exchange for a new, high-efficiency car.

Doodling on the back of the proverbial envelope, I came up with some useful answers. The numbers are approximate, but to the extent that they err, it is on the conservative side.

5.5 billion gallons per year of gasoline imported from Iraq before the war (290 million barrels per year @ 19 gallons per barrel)

24 miles per gallon advantage (each Prius gets at least 45 mpg, replacing cars that average about 21 mpg)

381 gallons per car saved annually (at an average of 15,000 miles annual driving, 714 gallons per year for a 21mpg car minus 333 gallons per year for a prius = 381 gallons saved by driving the Prius.

14.5 million new Priuses would displace the 5.5 billion gallons previously imported from Iraq (14,500,000 Priuses x 381 gallons per year = about 5,500,000,000 gallons)

A $17,275 tax credit would be given to each of the 14.5 million new Prius owners, covered by the same amount of money that has been spent on the war as of May 2006, $250 billion. ($17,275 x 14,500,000 = about $250 billion)

Furthermore, the fuel savings for a Prius owner, even at the now nostalgic cost of $2 per gallon, would be $762 per year (381 fewer gallons per year x $2 per gallon = $762)

This tax credit plus the yearly gas savings would cover a $21,300 purchase cost of the Prius after about 5 years (I'm assuming a bit lower price on the car due to the economy of scale). A Prius owner would have a gratis car and thereafter would still be saving money on gas, compared to normal cars.

According to a recently-published study, the war is projected to cost $1 trillion before it is over.

How about getting out of Iraq now, taking $250 billion of the savings to displace Iraq’s oil, and using an equivalent amount for hurricane recovery ?

Then we can get to work on energy efficiency investments that will help avoid the temptation for the next war for oil, and avoid contributing to global warming, which appears to be making hurricanes more devastating.

Added benefits of the Prius Strategy (not included in the figuring above):

• No one dies for oil.
• We annually avoid 58 million tons of carbon dioxide, a cause of global warming.
• It creates jobs building new, efficient cars.
• We don't make half the world mad at us, breed more terrorism, or spend untold billions more on counter-terrorism.

But what’s in it for Halliburton & friends?

Roger Lippman was one of the "Seattle Seven" who were arrested during the Vietnam War for antiwar "conspiracy." You can read his account of the experience at http://terrasol.home.igc.org/trial.htm